Welcoming the King Tide Era

Glossary 

(what exactly are you talking about?)

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• King Tide: King tides are the highest tides of the year—caused by the alignment of earth, moon, and sun. They have the potential to flood existing systems. They are peak pressure moments. 

 

• Social Sector: Private organizations acting to advance a social benefit. That benefit may be focused on the environment, the education system, human rights, social justice, healthcare–anything that benefits the good of our society. They are nonprofits, for-profits, or hybrid organizations with this intent.

 

• End Game: The specific role that a nonprofit intends to play in the overall solution to a social problem, once it has proven the effectiveness of its core model or intervention.

 

 

Intro 

(what does Flying Whale have to do with any of this, anyway?)

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Flying Whale Strategies exists to accelerate leaders capable of solving the world’s most pressing and complex problems. The leaders arrive with capability and a problem to solve. They’re smart, fast on their feet, and a bit rugged. By the time I meet them, they have become like special operators who don’t get cold easy, don’t mind sitting in uncomfortable chairs, and know exactly what’s happening behind them. They are the most elite professionals in their field. And yet they are asking for help preparing for their next assignment. 

 

Flying Whale must understand the nature of the next assignment–the era the nonprofit sector is moving into. And we must understand how to match these leaders with philanthropists who are looking for them. This paper explores both:

1. How should we prepare nonprofit leaders for the King Tide Era?

2. How should we help philanthropists identify the type of leader ready for their investment?

 

 

Part One: The King Tide Era 

(what are we dealing with?)

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King tides are the highest tides of the year—caused by the alignment of earth, moon, and sun. They have the potential to flood existing systems. They are peak pressure moments. And yet they are not always destructive. They are the high tides capable of carrying nutrients into places that are normally left out. They are also a natural stress test that exposes weaknesses in coastal infrastructure—helping planners and communities understand where adaptation or retreat is needed before actual climate-driven sea level rise makes the damage permanent.

 

To prepare nonprofit leaders for the King Tide Era, we begin with identifying its characteristics. How high will the tide reach? What will be the impact of salination on our water sources? Which roads, sewer systems, or bridges will be impacted? Will any creatures get beached on shore? Scientists have predictive tools to answer these questions. So should we.

 

The King Tide Era for the social sector is the confluence of political, economic, and environmental pressures that have the power to erase or reconfigure us. We have already observed the following:

 

Political Pressures

• Civil rights are not a priority for our federal government. Federal deprioritization of civil rights, voting rights, LGBTQ+ protections, and reproductive rights means more of this burden falls to the social sector.

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• The federal government is an unpredictable source of support for education, health care, and housing, and food security. Major public systems may be further privatized or defunded, shifting more responsibility to the social sector.

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• Organizations doing social justice work are threatened by anti-DEI initiatives and feel the need to de-emphasize that work or increase protections.​

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• Organizations with a progressive agenda are spending time and resources remodeling their agenda to conform to anti-wokeism.

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• The unraveling of post-WWII global institutions (e.g., NATO, UN frameworks, global aid systems) weakens international cooperation, impacting refugee policy, disaster response, and global human rights funding.

 

Economic Pressures

• The federal government is an unpredictable source of revenue for the social sector.

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• Philanthropy is unpredictable. Volatile markets may make donors cautious, delay giving, or restrict funds.

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• Philanthropy could also surge when donors respond to these crises with increased generosity.

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• The cost of doing business will increase. The cost of doing business—including wages, supplies, facilities—is rising sharply, with social enterprises particularly exposed.

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• Global trade wars and protectionism are affecting product-based nonprofits or enterprises tied to global supply chains.

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• Wealth inequality is increasing the demand for economic growth programs in places where the cost of doing business is prohibitive. ​

 

Environmental Pressures

• Rising sea levels, wildfires, and extreme weather are creating new waves of climate migrants and increasing demand for emergency and housing services.

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• Emerging pathogens and the erosion of public trust in science and public health institutions threaten community health and nonprofits’ ability to safely convene or serve.

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• Scarcity of water, land, and energy is already affecting nonprofits in agriculture, housing, and food access.

 

So those are the pressures. Now let’s explore the potential impact of these pressures:

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Impacts of these Pressures

Philanthropy has become disorganized.

There have been many eras for philanthropists. The Patronage era of the fifteenth century where wealthy benefactors like Lorenzo de’ Medici supported artists like Michalangelo and Leonardo Da Vinci. We had the Industrialist era in the late 1900s where the Carnegies and the Rockefellers funded elite institutions like libraries and universities to drive more industrialism. Even most recently, we’ve experienced an era of philanthropy beginning in the 1990s characterized by venture and tech wealth funding solutions to global problems through innovation. It has fueled applying the “startup mindset” to the social sector. 

 

We have benefited from the predictability of these eras. Benefactors knew how to play the game. Now we are not so certain. Some philanthropists are doubling down on causes they care about and spending down their funds (Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation). Some are freezing or limiting their giving (example). Some are making big bets (MacKenzie Scott). Some are criticizing philanthropy as perpetuating colonialism (Edgar Villanueva). Some are celebrating it. 

 

However, the most disorganized feature of philanthropy today is the rise of millennial and Gen Z donors. Millennials and Gen Z donors focus on what their peers care about at the moment. They are compelled by urgency and trends. They cancel things they disagree with. Their retention rate is lower than other generations. This disorganized way of giving could result in pop-up nonprofits offering curb appeal or a survival of the fittest. The “fittest” being those that are most fit for the donors of their time. Donor loyalty to large, established nonprofits could become a thing of the past.

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Nonprofits may no longer be the best model for service delivery.

• We may be entering a time where the nonprofit structure no longer competes with other models for solving the same problems. 

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• Public systems (governments) will offload responsibilities to nonprofits without corresponding resources. Executive orders have already limited government support of public health, housing, education, and food security.

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• Government regulation may ramp up to suppress or even end nonprofits’ influence.

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• Tech-enabled private actors may outcompete nonprofits in speed, data use, and perception of effectiveness, especially in areas like education, workforce development, or housing.

 

Mutual aid is on the rise. 

Community trust is shifting toward the concept of mutual aid. In some communities, informal and hyperlocal efforts are replacing formal nonprofits as trusted mechanisms for care and advocacy. They are non-hierarchical, run by volunteers, operate off social media and google spreadsheets, and are full of people with differing ideological opinions. Historically, we could study the Black Panthers as a system of mutual aid that arose in response to democratic failures in healthcare, education, and safety for Black communities.

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More recently, we saw them arise during COVID where neighbors provided hyper-local support systems for food, medicine, and rent assistance via WhatsApp, Google Sheets, and community boards. Bed-Suy Strong is an example from Brooklyn that supported 28,000 people with a week’s supply of home-delivered groceries. It raised and redistributed the equivalent of $1.2M in grassroots crowdsourced donations. We also see them front and center during disaster recovery. 

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Mutual aid groups are seen more frequently when people lose faith in democracy. They often turn to horizontal, participatory forms of governance—which is what mutual aid offers. These networks reflect democratic values (autonomy, consent, equity), but are often outside of the formal democratic state structure—because that structure is seen as insufficient or hostile.  

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Part Two: King Tide Social Sector Leaders 

(who will carry us through the King Tide era?)

 

Clearly, status quo solutions will not survive these pressures and threats. We need leaders with the creativity to let a high tide reform their work rather than erase it. Flying Whale is interested in describing the characteristics of King Tide leaders so that we can work with our clients to embody them, but also to offer a laminated identification card for investors. Leaders, let’s work on this list. Investors, if you are looking for that rare bird, it will look like this:

 

1. Their boards will be mad at them. They are ahead, exploring things that are hard to explain to their boards. Think CIA operative vs Langley. 

2. They are making weird spurts of investment in infrastructure. They understand the value of spending money on valuable resources, but don’t always have it.

3. Their understanding of the problem they are solving is robust. It goes beyond the surface to the systemic. They can articulate the cultural, political, and historic influences on the problem.

4. They are thinking about exponential vs linear growth. They can describe their business model that generates linear growth and the one they have in mind that will generate exponential growth.

5. They know their endgame. They can tell you about the mechanisms that will ultimately result in the solution to their problem. They have reckoned with the gap between what they can achieve and what the problem actually requires.

6. They have phoenix characteristics with a background in dragons. They have experience in problem-solving, but now understand how to solve problems by breaking the rules.

7. They are not married to the nonprofit governance structure. They are fluent in alternatives to the 501c3. 

8. They’re busy, but never seem busy. They have time for the most important parts of their day.

9. They are making big promises and showing their work.

10. Their personality tests will be inconclusive. They embody paradox in order to survive. 

 

 

Sources:

(where’d you get that idea?)

 

Fidelity Charitable. (2021). A new mindset changes donors' relationship with philanthropy. Retrieved from https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/insights/2021-future-of-philanthropy/new-mindset.html

 

Gugelev, A., & Stern, A. (2015). What's your endgame? Stanford Social Innovation Review, 13(1), 41–47.

 

Hamakawa, T., & Yamamoto, K. (2023, September 14). The Innovator’s Tale of the Phoenix and Dragon. Stanford Social Innovation Review. https://doi.org/10.48558/FNWV-3443

 

Kasper, G., Marcoux, J., & Holk, J. (2023, January 24). The T-Rex and the Snowshoe Hare: What’s Next for Philanthropy in the 2020s. Stanford Social Innovation Review. https://doi.org/10.48558/CTCQ-3C83

 

National Museum of African American History and Culture. (n.d.). The Black Panther Party: Challenging Police and Promoting Social Change. Retrieved May 9, 2025, from https://nmaahc.si.edu/explore/stories/black-panther-party-challenging-police-and-promoting-social-change

 

Petrosky, M. (2021, October 5). What can mutual aid do in a disaster? Sojourners. https://sojo.net/articles/what-can-mutual-aid-do-disaster

 

PricewaterhouseCoopers. (n.d.). Megatrends: Five global shifts reshaping the world we live in. Retrieved May 13, 2025, from https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/megatrends.html

 

PricewaterhouseCoopers. (n.d.). Six paradoxes of leadership. Retrieved May 13, 2025, from https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/succeeding-in-uncertainty/six-paradoxes-of-leadership.html

 

Rajani, R., & Hanstad, T. (2025, May 5). Big Bet Philanthropy and the Big Shift to Working With Government. Stanford Social Innovation Review. https://ssir.org/articles/entry/big-bet-philanthropy-government-scaling

 

Riley, S. (2024, August 19). Philanthropic leaders reflect on major trends – and tensions. The Philanthropist Journal. https://thephilanthropist.ca/2024/08/philanthropic-leaders-reflect-on-major-trends-and-tensions/

 

Ruedy, L., Glaisyer, T., & Reichenbach, R. (2025, May 8). Grappling With Systems Collapse: How Social Sector Leaders Can Respond. Stanford Social Innovation Review. https://ssir.org/articles/entry/grappling-with-systems-collapse

 

Samuel, S. (2020, March 24). Coronavirus volunteering: how you can help through a mutual aid group. Vox. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/24/21188779/mutual-aid-coronavirus-covid-19-volunteering